Arms and the Law

At the Vokolh Conspiracy, Eugene Volokh demonstrates that States' Brady Campaign grades have no association with their homicide rates, or with rates for homicide plus accidental gun deaths.

Denton Bramwell recently updated his 2006 study of the same issue, and got the same results as nine years ago: no correlation. Brady "As," "Fs," etc. can have high or low rates, with no pattern discernible.

Now, it's (quite) possible that Brady ratings do not correlate with strictness of gun control. The items evaluated are chosen on a political basis ("do we want this now"?). But at the least these results suggest that policymakers would be foolish to base enactments on Brady proposals.

From the Washington Times:

"Senate Democrats gathered Thursday on the steps of the Capitol surrounded by about a dozen armed guards to announce a new push for tougher gun-control laws."

In approval ratings, positive vs. negative views of a person or entity, if we subtract the negative ratings from the positive ones, NRA comes off nine percent ahead, and Hillary comes off ten percent behind. Probably not a good time for her to declare war.

Over at National Review Online, Charles Cooke takes apart Saul Cornell's article claiming that early State gun rights cases were a product of slave State courts.

The fact is that the early gun laws were the products of the then-frontier southeast, and so were the early gun law challenges. What conclusion can be drawn from either isn't terribly clear.

Story here. The one thing lacking is just how any of these will affect mass shootings. But then I suppose a person can overlook that detail -- in this context, they are playing to a "base" that regards gun restrictions as a matter of religious dogma, existing beyond proof of truth or falsity.

From 1997, tho I just saw it. Using a 5,200 person telephone surgery, authors conclude that annually about 1.9 million people draw a gun during a home intrusion, but don't actually see the intruder, another 503,000 draw a gun and do see the intruder and (not surprisingly) 497,000 report the intruder fled in response to the gun. These don't include defensive uses other than in response to home invasion, and on the other hand surely include some where no intruder was sighted because there was no intruder, but certain support Kleck's conclusions that defensive gun uses number in the millions per year.

For the first time in six years, NFL goes a month without a player getting arrested.

Some leaked audio from a private fundraiser. Held, appropriately, at the house of a wealthy "prohibited person," a fellow convicted of selling cocaine.

"I'm going to speak out, I'm going to do everything I can to rally people against this pernicious, corrupting influence of the NRA and we're going to do whatever we can."

"And here again, the Supreme Court is wrong on the Second Amendment. And I am going to make that case every chance I get."

Story here.

"Smith said according to multiple witnesses, the two men began arguing when Delpit punched the victim to the ground, and then continued to assault him. When bystanders tried to intervene, witnesses said the ATF agent pulled out a pistol and waved it at the crowd."

"When Rios declared, "By the way, we all carry," the crowd erupted in applause."

I attended, and spoke at, Second Amendment Foundation's GRPC, held in Phoenix this last weekend. The audio isn't up yet (the one online is the 2014 conference), but will eventually be accessible here or here.

Among the many good presentations were: John Lott of Crime Prevention Research Center, on the other side's statistical abuses, a panel from Doctors for Responsible Gun Ownership, and a panel of attorneys on "winning firearms freedom one case at a time."

Back in the 1930s, the Army experimented with semi auto versions of the Browning M-2, meant as portable tank-killers. Back then, armor was thin enough to be punctured by guns of this class (the Pazer I's armor ran from a quarter inch to a half inch), and the great weight even of a relatively light M2 could be handled by a cavalry horse. Soon, of course, tank armor got thick enough to make .50 attack useless (except, as one British source writes, to alert the tank's crew to the fact that someone was annoying them and motivate them to go looking for their tormentor).

Audio here. I found both sides a little hard to follow, but the judges who asked questions seemed inclined in a friendly direction.

Hillsdale involves as "as applied" challenge to the bar on firearms possession by those who have been involuntarily committed to an institution. The challenger was so committed, I gather 20-30 years ago, and is ready to present medical opinion that his mental problem is long gone. The 6th Circuit panel ruled in his favor, in an opinion that seemed unclear as to whether it was ruling "as applied" or on a "facial challenge," and the entire circuit took the case en banc.

The Second Circuit has mostly reversed a trial court ruling that Knife Rights members had no standing to sue.

"Standing to sue" is often a complex issue, and some courts use it as a "dump button" when faced with a case they don't like. The challenge is to the NY ban on "gravity knives," defined as any folding knife that opens by force of gravity or centrifugal force. The statute doesn't define how much centrifugal force, and in practice NYPD will cite or arrest for any folding knife that any officer can flip open in this way, or even for a knife that he cannot, if he speculates that someone stronger or faster might be able to do so.

Concealed carrier downs bank robber in Warren, MI.

"Lockheed Upbeat Despite F-35 Losing Dogfight to Red Baron". (A bit of background: billions are being spent on the F-35, intended as a vulnerable and hyper-expensive replacement for the study A-10 Warthog, and the F-35's backers were recently embarrassed when it came off second-best in a dogfight against a 30 year old F-16. Among other things, the virtual reality helmet restricted the F-35's pilot's ability to see the actual reality to his rear quadrants).

News reports of a partial win in the DC Circuit.

Josh Blackman reports on Bush's appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

Story here. A section is devoted to the James' gang's attempt to rob the bank at Northfield. with a display of the .50 Smith carbine that a local used to bring down Clell Miller and Bob Younger.

84 shots, one hit (in the calf) on a bad guy. Also noteworthy: at age 27, the perp had 12 prior arrests, including ones for armed robbery. The experiment in having gun laws that make it safe even with known violent criminals on the loose does not appear to be succeeding. Surprise.